How risky is your retirement income risk model?
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.61190/fsr.v24i3.3335Keywords:
Risk modeling, Retirement income, Portfolio sustainability, Monte Carlo simulation, The 4% ruleAbstract
Adequately sustaining lifetime income is a critical portfolio objective for retired investors. This article provides a brief review of various retirement income modeling approaches including historical back testing, Monte Carlo simulations, and other more advanced risk modeling techniques. Implau- sible assumptions underlying common risk models may mislead investors concerning the risk and return expectations of their retirement investment strategies. We compare risk models, evaluate their credibility, and demonstrate how an oversimplified model may distort the risks retired investors face. Differences in sustainability rates are stark: 4% failure at the low end versus 49% failure at the high end. The article ends with general comments regarding model risk and practitioner investment advice.
Downloads
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2015 Academy of Financial Services
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
Author(s) retain copyright and grant the Journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License that allows to share the work with an acknowledgment of the work's authorship and initial publication in this Journal.
This license allows the author to remix, tweak, and build upon the original work non-commercially. The new work(s) must be non-commercial and acknowledge the original work.
