On the Stationarity of Savings in the United States
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1016/1057-0810(95)90019-5Abstract
The question of stationarity of saving as a percent of disposable personal income is examined in detail. National Income and Product Accounts data is taken annually from 1929-1988, and quarterly from 1970-1988. The initial approach uses Dickey-Fuller (1987) tests. Their results indicate that, depending on the time period chosen, one is led to believe that both stationarity and non-stationarity exist in the data. ARIMA models are then fitted to both annual and quarterly data. Relatively large non-difference models are necessary to fit the long-range annual data (1929-1988), while relatively small differentiated models fit quarterly and short-range annual (1946-I 988) models. It is concluded that at least for saving as a percent of disposable income in the US, it is reasonable to believe that saving is not a stationary process. Quarterly Review of Economics & Finance, Summer 1994, 34(2):
183-I 93. (Reprinted with permission of ABIfInform, Copyright UMI.)
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