Long-range confidence interval projections and probability
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.61190/fsr.v14i1.4814Keywords:
Forecasting, Confidence intervals, BootstrappingAbstract
Accurately estimating long-range confidence intervals and probability estimates associated with an investment portfolio is critical to the financial planning process. To address this, computationally intensive data limiting Monte Carlo techniques have become popular. The results of this study suggest that simple theoritical probablistic return projections based only on an expected return and standard deviation estimate are just as accurate. This, using a simple spreadsheet, financial planners and investors can accurately assess a wide range of possible outcomes for a myriad of asset allocations, investment amounts and time horizons without needing to resort to more sophisticated methods.
Downloads
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2005 Academy of Financial Services
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
Author(s) retain the copyright and full publishing rights without restriction.
Author(s) grant the Journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License that allows reusers to distribute, remix, adapt, and build upon the material in any medium or format, for noncommercial purposes only. Reusers must acknowledge the work's authorship and initial publication in this Journal.
Noncommercial means not primarily intended for or directed towards commercial advantage or monetary compensation.
In addition, FSR grants to the UGA Libraries a worldwide, non-exclusive license to all content published by the Journal, including metadata, that is necessary to publish, transmit, and index the Journal and to preserve its content over time.
